Con la longevità nel titolo

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Il declino dei mercati assicurativi di tipo previdenziale, essenziali per il funzionamento dei fondi pensione, si può fermare con l’introduzione di titoli indicizzati alla longevità. Ma chi è disposto ad assumersi il rischio-longevità con le attuali tendenze demografiche? Qualcuno ha suggerito che siano le imprese farmaceutiche a emettere questi titoli, perché i loro profitti salgono quando gli individui invecchiano e fanno un ricorso maggiore ai medicinali. Il loro bilancio rappresenterebbe quindi la naturale copertura per questi nuovi strumenti finanziari.

Benjamin Franklin ha detto che nella vita niente è certo, eccetto la morte e le tasse. In realtà, negli ultimi venti anni abbiamo capito che, seppure la morte resta un fatto inevitabile, la lunghezza della vita è una variabile sempre più incerta.

Il problema delle assicurazioni

Quando il moderno welfare state fu introdotto in Gran Bretagna nel 1948, gli uomini ricevevano la pensione a 65 anni e avevano una vita attesa di 67 anni, solo alcuni sopravvivevano l’età di 70. Ora una buona percentuale di donne vive oltre gli 80 anni.
In tutti i paesi sviluppati si sono registrati aumenti significativi della longevità, che hanno messo in luce il problema di una mancanza di strumenti finanziari adeguati a rispondere alla domanda di assicurazione proveniente dai singoli risparmiatori e dal mercato assicurativo-previdenziale.
Gli assicuratori in Gran Bretagna si trovano a far fronte a pagamenti di vitalizi e pensioni per i quali la speranza di vita era stata sottostimata in media di due anni, con notevoli perdite. D’altra parte, per restare nel mercato, le compagnie hanno tenuto bassi i margini di profitto: molte dichiarano di essere in perdita nel “ramo previdenza”, esiste quindi un serio pericolo di scomparsa di tali forme assicurative. Ma i vitalizi e le pensioni sono lo strumento finanziario per eccellenza nella stipula di contratti previdenziali, proprio perché condizionali alla sopravvivenza dell’assicurato, e quindi in grado di coprire il “rischio longevità”.

I titoli longevity-linked

Il problema si può risolvere costruendo titoli, strumenti finanziari e anche derivati “longevity-linked”, cioè titoli i cui rendimenti siano legati a uno o più indici di sopravvivenza.
Il caso più semplice è un “survivor-bond”: è un titolo che paga solo cedole senza restituzione del capitale, i pagamenti delle cedole diminuiscono in linea con un indice di mortalità.
Questo potrebbe essere basato sulla esperienza di mortalità di una coorte di individui prefissata, ad esempio la popolazione dei sessantacinquenni viventi al momento della stipula. All’assottigliarsi della coorte le cedole calano, ma i pagamenti continuano fino a che l’ultimo individuo di quella coorte è vivo. Se, fatti cento gli individui della coorte all’inizio del contratto, in un anno la coorte è scesa a 98 individui, anche il pagamento della cedola è decurtato al 98 per cento del suo ammontare iniziale. 
Il proprietario del titolo (ad esempio la compagnia assicuratrice che lo acquista) è quindi protetto dal rischio aggregato di longevità che effettivamente si trova a sostenere dal lato dei suoi esborsi.
Ma il problema è: chi può emettere tali titoli? Chi è pronto ad assumersi il rischio-longevità date le tendenze in atto?
Il primo titolo longevity-indexed è stato emesso nel novembre 2004 dalla European Investment Bank. Il valore iniziale era di 540 milioni di sterline e la cedola iniziale di 50 milioni con una durata di venticinque anni. La cedola decresce nel tempo in linea con la mortalità degli uomini (inglesi o gallesi) che avevano 65 anni nel 2003. L’emissione ha ovviamente riscosso notevole successo tra i fondi pensione in Gran Bretagna.
Si noti tuttavia che questo nuovo strumento finanziario non è la soluzione finale: non copre il rischio-longevità delle donne ed è comunque limitato a una durata di venticinque anni, escludendo quindi la speranza di vita della “coda” dei longevi di quella coorte.
Qualcuno ha suggerito che siano le imprese farmaceutiche a emettere questi titoli, dato che i loro profitti salgono notevolmente quando gli individui, invecchiando, fanno maggiormente ricorso a medicinali. Il loro bilancio rappresenta quindi la naturale copertura per i titoli longevity-indexed.
In conclusione, l’introduzione di questi prodotti può contribuire a fermare il declino dei mercati assicurativi di tipo previdenziale che sono essenziali per il funzionamento dei fondi pensione.

* Adattato da “Longevity Indexed products: The new Investment products of the 21st Century”, manoscritto di David Blake, Londra, 2005.