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Transizione energetica e digitale richiedono un forte incremento dell’utilizzo di risorse minerali. Aumenta così la dipendenza dai fornitori di materie prime, non facili da reperire. Possono aiutare strategie internazionali di economia circolare.

Transizioni e materie prime

La transizione energetica e quella digitale comportano un passaggio da un sistema socio-economico basato su fonti fossili – che avevano guidato l’evoluzione del paradigma tecno-economico sin dalla prima rivoluzione industriale – a uno fondato sull’utilizzo di risorse minerali. In altre parole, lotta al cambiamento climatico e creazione di valore economico dipendono in maniera crescente da tecnologie basate sullo sfruttamento di risorse naturali non-fossili. Alcuni esempi: silicio e palladio vengono utilizzati nella produzione di microchip, impiegati in qualsiasi strumentazione digitale; le terre rare servono per i magneti permanenti che abilitano il funzionamento delle pale eoliche, ma anche per i settori dell’elettronica e dell’aerospaziale; cobalto e litio sono usati nella produzione di batterie, a loro volta fondamentali per la diffusione della mobilità elettrica, ma anche di dispositivi elettronici portatili. L’Agenzia internazionale per l’energia (Aie) stima una crescita da 4 a 6 volte dell’utilizzo di risorse minerali, a seconda dello scenario di politica climatica, rispetto ai consumi attuali (figura 1), solo per le tecnologie per l’energia pulita.

Ma quali sono i problemi connessi con questi nuovi utilizzi di risorse minerali?

Figura 1 – Domanda di minerali per tipologia e settore energetico di utilizzo

Fonte: Aie (2022)

Un problema economico e geopolitico

Il nuovo scenario genera preoccupazioni riguardo all’approvvigionamento di risorse naturali disponibili in quantità finite sul pianeta e distribuite in maniera ineguale.

Al di là della questione di lungo periodo dell’esaurimento delle riserve, nel breve periodo la disponibilità fisica e il prezzo delle materie prime dipendono da fattori di natura economica e geopolitica. Ed è questo l’aspetto più preoccupante. L’esempio più recente è ovviamente quello dell’impatto della guerra russo-ucraina sul gas metano. Altro esempio è quello della crisi delle terre rare occorsa nel 2010-2011 dopo le restrizioni all’export imposte dalla Cina, praticamente monopolista a livello globale per la fornitura di tali metalli. I prezzi delle terre rare salirono temporaneamente del 2 mila-10 mila per cento. Fu proprio quell’episodio ad accendere l’attenzione dell’Unione europea sulla questione della propria dipendenza dall’import di risorse minerali, con la stesura di una lista di Critical Raw Materials (Crm), considerati fattori di produzione essenziali per settori economici della massima importanza, ma esposti a elevati rischi di approvvigionamento, per via della forte concentrazione delle attività estrattive e di raffinazione (figura 2).

Figura 2 – Concentrazione dell’offerta per alcuni Crm

La strategia dell’Ue

Nei prossimi mesi, l’Ue pubblicherà il Critical Raw Materials Act con l’obiettivo di ridurre i rischi di shock nelle forniture e creare partnership strategiche. La Commissione fa affidamento su accordi commerciali volti all’import di materie prime, ma anche su un aumento dell’autosufficienza. In altre parole, si punta sull’incremento delle estrazioni minerarie sia nei paesi esportatori che nell’Unione.

Al Raw Materials Summit, il commissario per il mercato interno, Thierry Breton, ha sottolineato come l’obiettivo sia quello di ridurre la dipendenza europea proprio perché la transizione ambientale e digitale sono “semplicemente impossibili senza un accesso sicuro alle materie prime”.

Un problema ambientale e sociale

Deforestazione, inquinamento di suolo e acque, perdita di biodiversità sono alcuni degli effetti ambientali delle attività minerarie. Non sorprende dunque che, nonostante le incoraggianti scoperte di giacimenti di alcuni Crm in Europa, l’opposizione delle popolazioni locali costituisca un rischio per l’autosufficienza dell’Ue. In aggiunta, le attività estrattive spesso generano conseguenze sociali negative per le popolazioni locali, specie nei paesi in via di sviluppo: scarse ricadute economiche, impatti sulla salute, condizioni lavorative non adeguate. Le recenti proteste dei minatori peruviani, ad esempio, lo testimoniano. Uno strumento utile per monitorare questo tipo di proteste è l’Environmental Justice Atlas.

Economia circolare: fra innovazione e commercio

Come sarà possibile alleviare i problemi? Innanzitutto, recuperando i materiali alla fine del loro ciclo di vita su scala industriale. È l’Unione stessa, nel Circular Economy Action Plan (2020) a sottolineare l’importanza strategica del riciclo di rifiuti contenenti Crm, quali rifiuti elettronici e batterie.

Tuttavia, il recupero di Crm rimane esiguo in termini di sostituzione alla domanda di materie prime vergini. Perché? Da un lato, il recupero di specifici materiali è complicato dal design delle apparecchiature elettroniche, non allineato con obiettivi di riciclo o estensione della vita del prodotto, e dalla loro complessità in termini di composizione materiale, a sua volta dovuto alla loro crescente funzionalità. Dall’altro, i tassi di raccolta dei rifiuti strategici rimangono relativamente bassi. Infine, vi è lo stadio di sviluppo delle tecnologie di recupero di Crm, che in molti casi non ha raggiunto l’industrializzazione.

Le regolamentazioni commerciali, come Convenzione di Basilea (1992) e regolamento sulla spedizione dei rifiuti dell’Ue (2006), hanno tentato di ridurre i consistenti flussi, più o meno legali, di rifiuti diretti dai paesi sviluppati a quelli più poveri. Con la revisione della Waste Shipment Regulation, attualmente in discussione, l’auspicio sia dell’Ue che dell’industria del riciclo è che si possa facilitare il commercio di rifiuti, rendendo il riciclo più competitivo, scoraggiando i flussi illegali e assicurando gli standard ambientali in Europa e nei paesi di esportazione.

L’economia circolare è l’unica via per un effettivo incremento dell’autonomia dell’Unione europea, anche in vista dell’auspicata transizione energetica nei paesi in via di sviluppo. Ma non sempre il “chilometro zero” è la soluzione per la sostenibilità. Il supporto allo sviluppo di reti (quantomeno) intra-europee di riciclo di rifiuti strategici, potrebbe portare al raggiungimento di economie di scala e incentivare lo sviluppo di tecnologie specifiche più avanzate per il recupero di Crm, in un’ottica di specializzazione dei paesi sulla base di vantaggi comparati.