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È difficile fare previsioni economiche in tempi di forte incertezza geopolitica. L’ultimo esempio sono le stime di crescita negative dello scorso anno per i paesi coinvolti nella crisi ucraina. Ma anche l’ottimismo di oggi rischia di rivelarsi eccessivo.
L’importanza della geopolitica
Come ci ricorda un celebre libro dello storico inglese Niall Ferguson, poche settimane prima dello scoppio della prima guerra mondiale i mercati non avevano assolutamente capito cosa sarebbe successo. Eppure, negli anni precedenti vi era stata una forte corsa agli armamenti e le tensioni internazionali erano cresciute enormemente.
Ugualmente nelle ultime venticinque più importanti crisi internazionali (dalla guerra in Corea all’invasione russa dell’Ucraina), dopo una limitata caduta iniziale, che prosegue per qualche settimana, le borse si sono sempre riprese rapidamente.
Qualcuno potrebbe pensare che gli individui abbiano buone ragioni per romanzare il passato e angosciarsi sul futuro, mentre i mercati tendono a razionalizzare i problemi e a valutarne l’effettiva portata. Tuttavia, appare più probabile l’ipotesi che siano solo miopi, abbiano una visione troppo di breve termine e, soprattutto, siano incapaci di prevedere il futuro.
Le crescenti tensioni geopolitiche degli ultimi anni hanno portato gli economisti a studiare con maggior attenzione i legami fra la geopolitica e l’economia. Da un lato, si è tentato di creare indicatori attendibili dei rischi geopolitici, attraverso l’analisi del linguaggio dei giornali e della comunicazione aziendale, dall’altro si è cercato di valutare le relazioni fra questi indicatori e le principali variabili macroeconomiche.
In linea generale, le recenti analisi riconoscono come le più forti tensioni geopolitiche portino a maggiore frammentazione economica e finanziaria. Questa a sua volta conduce a: i) minori commerci e rimodulazione delle catene del valore su base domestica o regionale; ii) maggiore volatilità dei prezzi delle materie prime, borse, tassi e spread; iii) minori investimenti diretti dall’estero, finanziamenti e disponibilità di capitali; iv) minore diffusione della tecnologia; v) minore crescita e maggiore inflazione, vi) maggiore incertezza e possibilità di diversificazione del rischio; vii) minor offerta di beni pubblici globali come la lotta al cambiamento climatico e alle pandemie; viii) destabilizzazione del sistema monetario internazionale e dei pagamenti.
Seppure oggi i meccanismi di trasmissione della frammentazione risultino meglio definiti, le stime e il loro valore predittivo risultano ancora quanto mai incerte. Una recente rassegna svolta dal Global Financial Stability Report del Fmi mostra come le stime degli effetti delle tensioni geopolitiche sulla crescita mondiale oscillino, a seconda delle ipotesi, fra l’1,5 e il 12 per cento.
Pessimismi e ottimismi eccessivi
A testimonianza di quanto sia difficile fare previsioni in un contesto di forte incertezza geopolitica, basta ricordare che le stime di crescita dell’economia russa, ucraina e dei principali paesi sviluppati fatte lo scorso anno a ridosso della crisi ucraina e delle conseguenti sanzioni imposte dai paesi occidentali sono risultate sistematicamente più pessimistiche di quanto si è poi osservato nel corso del 2023. Oggi invece i mercati e i principali previsori sembrano orientati a un certo ottimismo, data la repentina caduta dell’inflazione e la tenuta del mercato del lavoro e dei consumi, almeno negli Usa. Tuttavia questo ottimismo, come il pessimismo dello scorso anno, rischia di essere eccessivo in un mondo sempre più caratterizzato da regimi autocratici (Cina, Russia, Corea del nord, Iran) che hanno deciso di allearsi fra di loro; da paesi oscillanti (Turchia, Arabia Saudita, India, Indonesia, Sud Africa e Brasile) che sono diventati molto importanti in un mondo bipolare e deideologizzato e si comportano in maniera sempre più opportunistica; e da una maggiore contrapposizione fra West and the Rest.
In altri termini, è diventato davvero difficile fare previsioni in un mondo dove la distribuzione di probabilità è diventata, come dicono gli statistici, sempre meno «normale» e sempre più «multimodale con code piatte» dove gli eventi estremi sono più probabili. Meglio limitarsi a fare scenari con una certa probabilità e attendere: come scriveva Eduardo de Filippo in Napoli Milionaria, “Ha dda passà ‘a nuttata”.
Figura 1 – Indicatore del rischio geopolitico
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Rony Hamaui laureato all'Università Commerciale L. Bocconi e Master of Science alla London School of Economics. È professore a contratto presso l'Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore di Milano e presidente di Intesa Sanpaolo ForValue. È consigliere del CDEC e del LSE-Alumni. E’ stato direttore Generale di Mediocredito e AD di Mediofactoring. Ha ricoperto numerosi incarichi presso il gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo; e’ stato responsabile del Servizio studi della Banca Commerciale Italiana nonché professore a contratto presso l' Università di Bergamo e l' Università Bocconi. Ha lavorato presso l'Istituto per la Ricerca Sociale. È autore di numerosi articoli scientifici e ha scritto e curato diversi libri riguardanti gli intermediari e i mercati finanziari internazionali nonché la finanza islamica.
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