Scuole aperte: bene, ma la sicurezza?

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Dal 26 aprile gli studenti tornano in classe ovunque, benché non al 100 per cento. È una buona notizia perché la chiusura delle scuole ha costi alti, in particolare per i più svantaggiati. Per garantire una riapertura in sicurezza però si è fatto poco.

Una promessa mantenuta

Il presidente del Consiglio, Mario Draghi, lo aveva annunciato nel suo discorso di insediamento alle Camere: la riapertura delle scuole sarebbe stata una priorità del nuovo governo. A due mesi di distanza da quel discorso la promessa sembra prossima a essere mantenuta. Infatti, le scuole torneranno in presenza su tutto il territorio nazionale a partire dal 26 aprile.

Cosa possiamo aspettarci? I piani su cui è necessario valutare la scelta sono naturalmente molteplici e spaziano dall’impatto diretto che le scuole possono avere sulla diffusione del contagio a quello, a volte trascurato, sull’apprendimento degli studenti.

A settembre le scuole aperte si era associate a un generale aumento dei contagi nelle regioni che per prime avevano riportato in classe gli studenti. Ulteriori analisi hanno rivelato come, anche a livello locale, le riaperture anticipate abbiano contribuito a far salire i contagi. Per esempio, uno studio di Michele Battisti, Andros Kourtellos e Giuseppe Maggio su dati geografici molto dettagliati per la Sicilia ha rivelato come l’apertura anticipata di alcune scuole abbia prodotto un aumento dei casi del 2 per cento entro due settimane. Tuttavia, gli effetti – sottolineano gli autori – dipendono dallo stato del contagio preesistente e dalla densità abitativa della zona presa in esame.

Le analisi per l’Italia trovano conferma anche in altri contesti, come per esempio gli Stati Uniti, dove un recente lavoro di Dena Bravata, Jonathan Cantor, Neeraj Sood e Christopher Whaley confronta l’andamento dei contagi nelle famiglie con e senza figli in età scolare, sfruttando la variazione nelle riaperture tra diverse aree del paese. Anche in questo caso, gli autori stimano un effetto positivo delle riaperture sui contagi, che però sembra essere modesto. Vi sono poi altri studi, per esempio quelli sulla Germania, che sembrano indicare un ruolo pressoché nullo delle scuole nella diffusione del contagio.

Le tre condizioni per la riapertura delle scuole

In generale, i modelli epidemiologici –per esempio, quelli messi a punto dal team EPIcx lab dell’università Sorbona di Parigi – suggeriscono che tenere aperte le scuole è possibile a patto di rispettare tre condizioni imprescindibili: aperture graduali, presenza limitata e adozione di misure di prevenzione.

Il nostro governo sembra aver puntato molto sulle prime due, dal momento che le aperture saranno parziali e interesseranno tra il 50 e il 75 per cento degli studenti in zona rossa e tra il 70 e il 100 per cento in zona gialla e arancione, lasciando ampia discrezionalità ad amministratori locali e presidi, a dispetto di una alquanto convoluta disposizione contenuta nell’ultimo decreto Covid che vieta le deroghe ma le consente “in casi di eccezionale e straordinaria necessità”.

Per quanto riguarda l’adozione di misure di prevenzione, le indicazioni sono piuttosto scarne. Sappiamo ormai che una scarsa areazione dei locali è una delle condizioni che rendono più probabile il contagio, ma poco o nulla è stato fatto per dotare le scuole di sistemi di purificazione dell’aria. Le evidenze aneddotiche raccontano di lezioni fatte con il cappotto (o addirittura l’ombrello) durante i mesi invernali. La primavera dovrebbe quanto meno agevolare il ricambio d’aria. È però curioso come dopo oltre un anno dall’inizio della pandemia ci si debba ancora affidare alla bella stagione come rimedio ultimo per contrastare il virus, soprattutto per i ragazzi, per i quali i vaccini non sono ancora disponibili.

Altrettanto sconfortanti sono le discussioni sui trasporti, che sembrano esattamente le stesse di otto mesi fa, così come non è stato ancora predisposto un piano di sorveglianza dei contagi, su cui le iniziative sono per lo più lasciate all’intraprendenza degli amministratori locali.

Costi e benefici

Eppure, oltre alle evidenze sul contributo della scuola ai contagi, si sono moltiplicate in questi mesi quelle che misurano i costi legati al mancato apprendimento dei bambini e dei ragazzi. Un costo che non è solo dovuto alla fruizione della didattica in presenza o a distanza, ma alle interazioni sociali che sono state drasticamente ridotte, se non azzerate del tutto, nell’ultimo anno, con annesse conseguenze sulla salute mentale degli studenti.

L’apprendimento non è solo quello legato alla trasmissione di conoscenza dal docente all’alunno, ma anche quello che avviene tra studenti. È il cosiddetto peer effect: studiare insieme ai propri compagni comporta in media un beneficio sui risultati scolastici e sulle prospettive future degli studenti. Un lavoro recente di Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti e Fabrizio Zilibotti sottolinea come l’azzeramento del peer effect rischia di avere effetti maggiori sugli studenti che provengono da contesti più svantaggiati, i quali per altro hanno minori mezzi per sopperire alla mancanza della didattica in presenza attraverso canali alternativi.

Il loro modello stima che i costi della chiusura delle scuole ricadono quasi interamente sugli studenti provenienti da famiglie più povere, mentre quelli provenienti da contesti più privilegiati sono solo sfiorati dagli effetti negativi della chiusura. Questi risultati sono peraltro corroborati da altre evidenze empiriche, come quelle riportate da Zachary Parolin e Emma Lee per gli Stati Uniti, che mostrano come gli studenti appartenenti a minoranze etniche e quelli che già prima della pandemia avevano risultati scolastici peggiori hanno pagato il costo più elevato dell’apprendimento a distanza.

Tutto ciò avrebbe dovuto spingere da tempo a un whatever it takes sulla scuola, senza però rifugiarsi nel mantra della scuola sicura come atto di fede, ma calcolando i rischi delle riaperture e i conseguenti benefici, individuando un punto di equilibrio tra i due e impegnandosi a fare tutto il possibile per rendere davvero sicura la scuola, nel modo in cui le evidenze scientifiche suggeriscono, anche prendendo in prestito da quelle riferite ad altri paesi. Altrimenti, rischiamo l’ennesimo rinvio del ritorno alla normalità, con la conseguente minaccia di sfibrare ancora di più il tessuto sociale del paese.