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I dati mostrano che la crisi ha colpito tutti i redditi, ma in misura maggiore quelli più bassi. L’aumento della disuguaglianza si registra a partire dal 2008. Così come accade per la povertà. La necessità di tornare a crescere e la riforma degli schemi di contrasto all’esclusione sociale.
I REDDITI PRIMA E DURANTE LA CRISI
La scorsa settimana, la Banca d’Italia ha reso disponibili i microdati relativi al 2012 dell’indagine biennale sui bilanci delle famiglie italiane. I dati ci offrono la possibilità di studiare l’evoluzione della diseguaglianza nella distribuzione del reddito e della povertà fino al 2012, coprendo quindi buona parte del periodo della crisi economica iniziata nel 2008. Descriviamo qui la dinamica di diseguaglianza e povertà prima e durante la crisi, rimandando a successivi interventi eventuali approfondimenti sugli effetti della crisi per gruppi sociali.
La variabile che consideriamo è il reddito equivalente, calcolato dividendo il reddito disponibile famigliare per una scala di equivalenza, così da ottenere un reddito pro-capite corretto per le economie di scala famigliari. Tutte le elaborazioni sono riferite agli individui, attribuendo a ciascuno il reddito (inclusi i fitti imputati) della famiglia a cui appartiene. (1)
La figura 1 mostra di quanto è cambiato in percentuale il reddito equivalente medio di ciascun decile della popolazione. (2) Prima della crisi, cioè nel periodo 2000-2008, si nota un aumento del reddito reale per tutta la popolazione, particolarmente forte per il 10 per cento più povero. Con la crisi (tra il 2008 ed il 2012) il quadro cambia in modo radicale: il reddito diminuisce per tutti, soprattutto per il primo 10 per cento, che registra un crollo di un quarto. Considerando l’intero periodo 2000-2012, si osserva una riduzione per tutti i decili, più intensa per i due più bassi.
Figura 1 Variazione percentuale del reddito equivalente per decili
Se misuriamo la diseguaglianza nella distribuzione del reddito con l’indice più comunemente usato, quello di Gini, allora non è significativamente cambiata in tutto il periodo considerato, come è evidente dalla figura 2, che mostra l’indice di Gini e il suo intervallo di confidenza al 95 per cento. L’indice risente maggiormente di variazioni dei redditi intermedi, che non sono cambiati tanto in questi anni.
Se usiamo un indice di diseguaglianza più sensibile a quanto avviene nella coda sinistra della distribuzione, come la deviazione logaritmica media, invece, si nota, in coerenza con la figura 1, una più chiara riduzione nel primo periodo e un incremento durante la crisi. Questo indice ritorna, alla fine del periodo, a valori simili a quelli di dodici anni prima. La differenza tra il punto minimo e il 2012 è, anche se di poco, significativa.
Figura 2 – Indici di diseguaglianza della distribuzione del reddito equivalente
POVERTÀ IN CRESCITA DAL 2008
L’indice di diffusione della povertà relativa calcola quante persone vivono in famiglie con reddito equivalente inferiore a una certa percentuale del reddito medio o mediano della popolazione. Seguiamo il criterio Eurostat, in base al quale la linea di povertà è definita come il 60 per cento del reddito mediano equivalente famigliare. La figura 3 ci dice che nei dodici anni considerati la quota di persone in povertà è aumentata poco: dal 20 al 21 per cento. Inoltre, tutto l’aumento si è verificato prima della crisi. La ragione di questo andamento, lontano dalla comune percezione della gravità della crisi, sta nel fatto che la linea di povertà varia di anno in anno: se si verificasse ad esempio una recessione con un crollo diffuso dei redditi, senza modificazioni nelle posizioni relative, l’indice rimarrebbe invariato. (3)
Per ottenere una misura di povertà che sia ancora almeno in parte relativa (nel senso che la linea è ancora una frazione del reddito medio o mediano), ma che sia in grado di tenere conto del cambiamento dei livelli assoluti dei redditi, si può scegliere di fissare la soglia di povertà nell’anno di partenza, aggiornandola, per gli anni successivi, solo in base al tasso di inflazione. La figura 3 mostra quanti individui sono al di sotto della linea di povertà calcolata per il 2000 e tenuta fissa in seguito. Coerentemente con quanto emerso dalla figura 1, si osserva un calo della quota dei poveri nella prima parte del periodo, mentre con la crisi si verifica un deciso incremento, particolarmente forte nell’ultimo biennio considerato. Tra il 2000 e il 2006 il numero dei poveri sarebbe quindi diminuito da 11,4 a 9,6 milioni di persone, mentre tra il 2006 e il 2012 vi sarebbe stato un incremento di ben 3,9 milioni di persone, portando il numero di poveri a circa 13,5 milioni.
Figura 3 – Percentuale di individui in povertà relativa (con soglia variabile e soglia fissa 2000)
Le elaborazioni mostrano che la crisi ha colpito in maniera molto pesante soprattutto i redditi bassi, aumentando così la diffusione della povertà, se viene calcolata tenendo fissa la soglia in termini reali. La maggiore caduta dei redditi dei più poveri si riflette in un leggero incremento della disuguaglianza a partire dal 2008, significativo solo se usiamo un indice che pesa molto i redditi più bassi. Tuttavia, se è corretto dire che i poveri sono ancora più poveri, non lo è invece affermare che i ricchi sono sempre più ricchi (o meglio lo sono solo in termini relativi, ma non assoluti), in quanto durante gli ultimi quattro anni tutti hanno subìto, in media, una riduzione di reddito.
Il crollo dei redditi più bassi ci dice che è essenziale che si ritrovi la strada della crescita e rende urgente una riforma degli schemi di contrasto all’esclusione sociale, come il Consiglio d’Europa ha ricordato all’Italia pochi giorni fa. Ma visto che il reddito è diminuito anche per le famiglie che non sono povere, la disponibilità ad accettare nuove politiche redistributive non è certo elevata.
(1) Il reddito che consideriamo è composto dal reddito monetario e dalla valutazione fatta dal proprietario dell’affitto imputato sugli immobili di proprietà, compresa l’abitazione di residenza. Abbiamo verificato che utilizzando il solo reddito monetario si ottengono andamenti molto simili.
(2) Ogni decile comprende il 10 per cento della popolazione italiana, dal 10 per cento più povero (il primo decile) al 10 per cento più ricco (il decimo).
(3) Su lavoce.info si vedano gli articoli “Poveri sì, ma sotto quale soglia?” di R. Tangorra del 4/9/12, “Una riflessione sulle misure di povertà” di L. L. Sabbadini del 14/9/12 e “La linea (di povertà) è mobile” di G. Vecchi e N. Amendola del 2/10/2012).
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Professore di Politica Economica presso il Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi" dell'Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia. Membro del Capp, Centro di Analisi delle Politiche Pubbliche, dello stesso dipartimento, del comitato scientifico della Fondazione Gorrieri e del comitato editoriale di Politica Economica - Journal of Economic Policy. Fa parte della redazione de lavoce.info. 
Dal 2001 Economista presso Prometeia Associazione per le Previsioni Econometriche. Ha conseguito un MSc in Economics all'Università di Glasgow e un Dottorato di Ricerca in Statistica all'Università di Bologna. Ha inoltre lavorato come Statistician allo Scottish Executive di Edimburgo. Si occupa di analisi microeconometriche su distribuzione dei redditi, condizioni economico-finanziarie delle famiglie e impatto delle politiche fiscali sulle famiglie.
Ha conseguito la laurea magistrale in Economia e Politiche Pubbliche presso l’Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia. Dal 2013 collabora con Prometeia Associazione per le Previsioni Econometriche dove si occupa di analisi microeconometriche e di impatto delle politiche fiscali sulle famiglie. Durante gli studi universitari ha collaborato con il Capp e il Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze.
Giorgio Cinciripini
Un chiarimento: tutte queste elaborazioni includono dati sull’enorme evasione fiscale? Ovvero tra i tanti poveri non ci sono anche quelli che hanno evaso sistematicamente le tasse? Come vengono considerati? Ps nella mia esperienza professionale, analizzando comportamenti “naturali” consideravamo con discreta confidenza una platea di numeri rappresentativi di un 95% della “realtà” (anche se con titubanza). Quando si fanno queste analisi si lavora sul 70% dello scenario di attività e transazioni economiche rilevate. E le altre? Come si possono fare tante elucubrazioni con questa base?
ScassaTesta
Amico, intanto prendiamo per buoni i dati esclusa l’evasione, poi sarà impegno dello stato e di noi cittadini far sì che l’evasione si riduca. Troppo comodo dire “siccome non si conta l’evasione è tutto sbagliato”.
Amegighi
Considerando l’evidente dimestichezza sulla materia, basta si legga direttamente il rapporto di Bankitalia. Scaricabile direttamente in rete (tempo: 20 secondi). (Appendice, nota metodologica).
Francesco Pampinella
L’evasione fiscale c’era anche prima della crisi. Siccome l’articolo considera le variazioni dell’incidenza della povertà prima e dopo l’inizio della crisi, a parità delle altre condizioni (ceteris paribus), a mio modesto parere, il ragionamento non risulta inficiato dalla presenza dell’evasione fiscale.
serlio
Non solo la crisi ha falciato i redditi degli italiani, ma anche e forse sopratutto lo stato parassita che ci governa. La demagogia populista di mm (porta iella e quindi non lo scrivo per esteso) ha creato 30.000 disoccupati nella nautica da diporto, cui ha regalato la Imu, poi addirittura peggiorata se possibile.
Per non parlare degli altri settori dove è intervenuto, quali il defunto mercato immobiliare cui la suddetta patrimoniale ha dato il colpo di grazia.
Il tutto per poi regalare i soldi ai parassiti di stato in cambio della nomina a senatore a vita ha aumentato l’Iva e le accise e tutte le imposte a livello di massacro fiscale della economia e incrementando la povertà, perché i soldini che lo stato ci estorce non possono essere spesi e quindi vi sono meno posti di lavoro. non è un concetto difficile.