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L’Italia gestisce l’uscita dalla Bri con equilibrio, mostrandosi aperta ad altre forme di collaborazione con Pechino. Ne potrebbe derivare quel miglioramento delle relazioni commerciali tra i due paesi che l’adesione al Memorandum nel 2019 non ha portato.
L’annuncio ufficiale
In occasione del G20 di Nuova Delhi, la presidente del Consiglio Giorgia Meloni ha annunciato l’uscita dell’Italia dalla Belt and Road Initiative (Bri), a cui aveva aderito nel marzo 2019. La decisione, attesa da tempo, era stata anticipata di recente da un’analoga dichiarazione del nostro ministro degli Esteri, Antonio Tajani durante una visita a Pechino. Secondo il Financial Times, Meloni ha auspicato un partenariato “reciprocamente vantaggioso” tra Cina e Italia e l’obiettivo di “rafforzare” la cooperazione bilaterale tra i due paesi. Su quali linee si svilupperà la cooperazione, nessuno ne ha idea, né i pochi accenni offerti da Meloni e Tajani lo hanno chiarito.
L’annuncio era già stato ampiamente anticipato, fin dall’insediamento del governo Meloni. Durante l’ultima campagna elettorale italiana, nell’estate del 2022, Meloni dichiarava infatti che l’adesione dell’Italia alla Bri era stata un “errore”. Lo scorso novembre, il ministro della Difesa Guido Crosetto affermava che il rinnovo dell’accordo tra i due paesi, che sarebbe scaduto nel 2023, era “improbabile”. Il 21 aprile 2023, la premier italiana confermava l’intenzione dell’Italia di uscire dalla Bri, ma finora non era stata rilasciata alcuna dichiarazione ufficiale.
Dati sulle relazioni commerciali Italia-Cina
La decisione di aderire alla Bri era stata presa nel marzo 2019 dal governo di coalizione Movimento 5 stelle-Lega, che verso la Cina aveva una posizione diametralmente opposta a quella dell’attuale esecutivo. Sulla Bri l’Italia è stata l’unico membro del G7 a disallinearsi dal fronte occidentale nel 2019, e lo è ancora.
Roma non ha sostanzialmente tratto alcun vantaggio dalla partecipazione alla iniziativa cinese. L’integrazione economica tra i due paesi non è progredita in modo significativo né attraverso il commercio né attraverso gli investimenti. Le esportazioni italiane verso Pechino sono aumentate solo leggermente, passando da 14,5 miliardi a 18,5 miliardi di euro nel 2022. Allo stesso tempo, le importazioni italiane dalla Cina sono aumentate da 33,5 a 50,9 miliardi di euro nello stesso periodo. L’Italia ha un forte deficit commerciale con la Cina e uno degli obiettivi del Memorandum d’intesa era quello di riequilibrare un rapporto commerciale squilibrato: dopo quattro anni, però, non è cambiato nulla. Gli investimenti diretti esteri della Cina in Italia sono crollati da 650 milioni di dollari nel 2019 ad appena 20 milioni di dollari nel 2020, con un lieve aumento nel 2021 (33 milioni di dollari) secondo Rhodium Group.
Tutti questi dati devono essere considerati nel contesto del Covid-19 e sono coerenti con un più ampio declino degli investimenti cinesi in Europa. Tuttavia, dimostrano che, nonostante la firma della Bri, il nostro paese non ha stretto una relazione speciale con Pechino. Gli investimenti cinesi in Europa sono rimasti estremamente concentrati: Germania, Francia e Benelux, tutti paesi che non hanno aderito alla Bri, sono i principali destinatari degli Ide cinesi nella regione.
Le conseguenze possibili
La domanda di oggi è quali potrebbero essere le conseguenze dell’uscita dalla Bri, un evento senza precedenti, perché finora nessun paese partner dell’iniziativa Bri ha mai optato ufficialmente per fuoriuscirne. Tra vaghe e isolate affermazioni (dal chiaro intento di terrorismo psicologico) in virtù delle quali “le aziende e i cittadini italiani che lavorano con la Cina pagherebbero un caro prezzo se Roma si tirasse fuori dal programma”, gli insegnamenti delle passate esperienze di deterioramento delle relazioni bilaterali tra Cina e paesi occidentali non sono di certo incoraggianti.
Un buon esempio potrebbero essere le ritorsioni cinesi contro la Lituania, che è anch’essa uno stato membro dell’Ue sebbene di dimensioni economiche minori, dopo l’apertura di un “ufficio di rappresentanza di Taiwan” a Vilnius. Un altro caso sono le sanzioni contro il Canada, paese membro del G7 come l’Italia. Oppure si potrebbe trarre insegnamento dalla ritorsione attuata contro l’Australia, incentrata sul blocco delle importazioni. Lo stop alle importazioni dalla Lituania è stato ancora più drammatico, poiché ha incluso anche le importazioni dalla Germania con input dalla Lituania. Tuttavia, tutti questi casi avevano un contenuto altamente politico: Taiwan nel caso della Lituania, l’origine di Covid nel caso dell’Australia o l’arresto della figlia del fondatore di Huawei in quello del Canada. Ma come verrà letta politicamente dai leader cinesi la decisione italiana di abbandonare la Bri?
L’intenzione di Meloni è stata finora quella di limitare la politicizzazione della decisione, mostrandosi aperta ad altri tipi di accordi con Pechino pur senza mantenere l’etichetta Bri. Ben lungi dal mettere in un angolo le relazioni con la Cina, in realtà la scelta potrebbe far accadere esattamente il contrario, ed ecco perché. La presidente del Consiglio ha due vincoli contrastanti. Da un lato, le chiare alleanze economiche e militari internazionali rappresentano una spinta a uscire da un protocollo d’intesa molto discusso che coinvolge un membro fondatore della Nato e la Repubblica popolare cinese, che ora si è accodata alla Russia e si è unita alle attività militari in un pieno asse anti-Nato. D’altra parte, il gruppo più potente di elettori di Meloni è il settore imprenditoriale, sempre diffidente quando si tratta di introdurre fattori geopolitici nelle proprie decisioni strategiche o, peggio ancora, ben capace di far leva sul proprio potere di lobbying per assicurarsi il sostegno del governo in qualsiasi circostanza si presenti. Di conseguenza, c’è ora una convergenza di interessi tra il governo Meloni e la Cina per optare per un’uscita “dolce” dalla Bri e allo stesso tempo continuare a collaborare per fare affari, in Italia, in Cina e nei paesi terzi. In questo modo si eviterebbe il rischio di quelle ritorsioni che molto preoccupano la comunità imprenditoriale italiana in questi giorni.
Quando si riflette sulla reazione del governo cinese all’annuncio dell’Italia bisogna considerare anche la situazione interna. In linea di principio le condizioni economiche sempre più preoccupanti dovrebbe dissuadere Pechino dal prendere una posizione forte contro l’Italia. Ma non si può dimenticare che la decelerazione strutturale negli ultimi anni è stata accompagnata da un aumento del nazionalismo e dell’aggressività nei confronti dei paesi percepiti come oppositori della Cina.
Nel complesso, il modo in cui l’Italia sta gestendo la sua uscita dalla Bri suggerisce, ironia della sorte, un miglioramento delle relazioni con la Cina, molto probabilmente sotto forma di un quadro bilaterale di cooperazione con un dialogo economico ad hoc come quelli che Germania e Francia hanno già sviluppato con Pechino. Il risultato, tuttavia, potrebbe non essere gradito a Washington o a Bruxelles, visto lo stato delle relazioni della Cina con gli Stati Uniti e con l’Unione europea.
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Professore associato di Politica economica presso l’Università del Piemonte Orientale e Associate Senior Research Fellow nel programma Asia dell'ISPI. E' stata visiting scholar presso il Department of International Business and Economics dell'Universita' di Greenwich ed economista presso la United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Ha pubblicato numerosi articoli sull’economia cinese e sull'espansione delle imprese cinesi all'estero su riviste accademiche internazionali quali China Economic Review, China and the World Economy, International Economics, World Development, World Economy. Tra i libri: L'economia della Cina nel XXI secolo (con F. Lemoine), Il Mulino, 2021; L'économie de la Chine au XXIè siècle (con F. Lemoine), La Découverte (in corso di pubblicazione); China Dream: Still coming True?, ISPI, 2016; Xi Jinping's policy gambles: The bumpy road ahead (con A. Berkofski), ISPI, 2015 e L'economia della Cina (con S. Chiarlone), Il Mulino, 2006.
Alicia García Herrero è Chief Economist per "Asia Pacifico" a Natixis CIB ed è inoltre Senior Fellow al think-tank europeo BRUEGEL.
Umberto
Con la Cina vanno bene un accordo della durata di 5 minuti.
Poi se ne fa un altro e poi un altro ancora.
Gli unici accordi con la Cina sono quelli dove lei si prende il 99.99 e tu il resto.
Savino
L’Italia sta continuando a ragionare come se ci fosse sempre lo stesso sistema geopolitico ed economico di prima. In un modo o nell’altro bisogna avere a che fare e relazionarsi con le realtà politiche ed economiche e con gli attori presenti oggi. Si sceglie di farlo lo stesso e di tacerlo per opportunità politica ed elettorale.
nicole
Buongiorno, qualcuno saprebbe indicarmi dove è possibile trovare la nota con cui l’italia ha deciso di non rinnovare il memorandum con la cina?
grazie mille!